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2024-12-14 08:43:16

Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.IDC: The recovery of China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024 was less than expected. According to the latest report "Tracking China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024" released by IDC, the scale of China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024 reached US$ 4.40 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year, and it was RMB 31.67 billion, up 11.5% year-on-year, achieving double-digit growth, but the growth rate was high. In the financial cloud sub-market, the cloud infrastructure market has picked up from the previous month, but the situation of financial institutions reducing costs and increasing efficiency has continued, and the overall development speed of the cloud solution market has further slowed down. From the overall situation of the financial cloud market in 2024, the financial cloud market in China is in a period of adjustment, and the development trend of each sub-market continues to differentiate.


IDC: The recovery of China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024 was less than expected. According to the latest report "Tracking China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024" released by IDC, the scale of China's financial cloud market in the first half of 2024 reached US$ 4.40 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year, and it was RMB 31.67 billion, up 11.5% year-on-year, achieving double-digit growth, but the growth rate was high. In the financial cloud sub-market, the cloud infrastructure market has picked up from the previous month, but the situation of financial institutions reducing costs and increasing efficiency has continued, and the overall development speed of the cloud solution market has further slowed down. From the overall situation of the financial cloud market in 2024, the financial cloud market in China is in a period of adjustment, and the development trend of each sub-market continues to differentiate.The concept of memory chip fluctuated and strengthened. The daily limit of Purran shares was 20CM, and Zhaoyi Innovation approached the daily limit. Hengshuo shares, Netac Technology, Juchen shares and Weiwei Storage all rose by more than 5%.The concept of unmanned driving changed partially. Both Haida and SAIC have daily limit, while the concept of unmanned driving changed partially. Both Zhonghaida and SAIC have daily limit, and Gaoxinxing, Huati Technology, Yutong Heavy Industry and Jinlong Automobile have followed suit.


Institution: In the third quarter, the price and shipment of the large-capacity enterprise-level solid-state disk industry rose simultaneously. According to the latest survey of TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the strong demand for AI applications continued to drive the growth of the Enterprise SSD industry in the third quarter of 2024. As the supplier's shipment could not meet the market demand, the price rose, pushing up the overall revenue of the industry by nearly 30%. Due to the arrival of NVIDIA (NVIDIA) H series products, and the peak demand for Training AI Server, especially the strong demand for large-capacity products, the overall purchase order capacity increased by 15% quarter.Today, there is a wave of daily limit in the two major outlets. "No bean bags, no AI." With the continuous fermentation of the concept of bean curd in A-shares, some investors shouted such a slogan. Bean bag+toys, bean bag+advertising and marketing, bean bag+data, bean bag+computing power, bean bag+headphones ... Haitian Ruisheng, Runxin Technology, Shengguang Group and other concept stocks have caused continuous market pursuit. This morning, the concept of bean curd became active again, and the AI application end and hardware end of bean curd rose together. Lexin Technology, Zhongke Lanxun, Juxin Technology and Hengxuan Technology, which are known as the "four little dragons" of end-side AI SOC (system on a chip), rose collectively in intraday trading. Runze Technology, a computing stock, rose more than 16%, and its share price reached a new high. In addition, this morning, the market paid more attention to the concept of starting economy, and the exhibition and IP economy sectors rose. The ground element fashion gap opened higher, and it didn't take long for the daily limit to open. The reason is that Shanghai Disu Fashion Co., Ltd. was listed in the "2023 Shanghai First Economic Leading Brand List" published at the end of last year. (CSI)On the 13th, local time, the South Korean prosecutor summoned Guo Zhonggen, the commander of the special operations before the investigation.

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